We are just about two weeks away from the premiere of Season 7, and already spoilers are coming out, many of which we’ve detailed on american-idol-blog.com.
We also have more reviews to write, including our look at Blake Lewis’ new CD.
However, before your Idol-news cravings go into full fix mode, I thought I’d offer my annual ‘State of American Idol‘ address, a peek into the crystal ball, an analysis of what I personally hope to see this season and what I think would enhance the show critically.
By all accounts, Season 6 was a down year for our favorite show. The ratings weren’t as good, but that’s also a bit like saying Tiger Woods only managed to shoot a birdie instead of an eagle. Idol is still the most popular show on television, and its viability is unquestioned.
However, I expect some changes are on the way, albeit not huge ones.
To make Idol a show whose longevity can span decades instead of just a few more years, its creators will need to recognize what drives the musical marketplace. Carrie Underwood and Chris Daughtry are great examples.
Carrie is a brilliant country singer, whose work has attracted the dollars of millions of people who didn’t even watch Idol. The band Daughtry has garnered the respect of fans, critics and the industry. What did the two have in common?
Both appeal to older audiences.
Sure, lots of us in our thirties (guilty), forties and beyond watch Idol. However, I don’t think Joe or Jane down at the bar ever bought a Tamyra Gray CD, a record I actually enjoyed quite a bit. Nevertheless, the most successful Idol contestants have earned their keep from the more adult contemporary aisle of the music world.
This won’t mean that producers will sway voters to support older contestants. Taylor Hicks’ post-Idol career has been a big disappointment so far, and Bo Bice’s isn’t far ahead. These cats were musicians who happened to take a chance on our favorite show and who happened to gain stardom from it but who were never really suited to the marketplace that awaited them.
In the end, for this show to grow in credibility as well as popularity, it needs to produce more stars with mass-market, 25-to-54 appeal. Here’s what I think it will mean for Season 7:
1. Instruments. We’ve already heard that some contestants might be allowed to play instruments on the show. A guitar or piano here and there. This is potentially huge not only in terms of foreshadowing post-show success but also in bringing Idol some credibility among industry haters.
Make instruments a real player on Idol, and the show will not only attract an even wider range of contestants but also a bigger audience.
2. More country. Idol’s largest successes thus far have been in country music. Josh Gracin. Carrie Underwood. Kellie Pickler. Bucky Covington. It seems as if every legitimate country threat on this show has not only landed a record deal but also found success.
Don’t think Simons Fuller and Cowell aren’t aware of that. Cowell might not like twang, but he likes cash.
3. More rock. Daughtry’s success isn’t lost on the show’s creators either. In the past, contestants with an old-school sound or a bluesy vibe have been hailed as revivalists. However, future contestants will need to demonstrate an ability to pull off a “Daughtry,” to be edgy but appealing to the masses.
4. Less soul. America’s best selling soul acts are artists like Alicia Keys and John Legend, both of whom are terrific instrumentalists, beyond being great singers and writers. The days of a soul singer who can’t do something beyond sing making it big are long gone, unless we’re talking teeny-bopper music or rap.
And I can’t imagine rap being part of a singing competition, not at least at this point. If a young male singer comes along with a NeYo or Chris Brown sort of vibe, then I’ll take it back. But that’s what it will take to make soul a continuing relevant genre for Idol.
By the way, Donny Hathaway is one of my musical idols. But Idol’s only current soul stars are Fantasia and Elliot Yamin, and they’re pretty marginal stars.
So, we have instruments, more rock and country, and less soul … but what else?
I absolutely believe the winner of Season 7 will fall into the middle of the eligible age range, like Carrie and Chris Daughtry, roughly somewhere between 20 and 24. At that age, they’re old enough to appeal to adults and young enough to appeal to kids.
I also believe the winner of Season 7 will again be female. While there will be six guys and six girls competing for votes each week, it takes a unique male to bring in those thousands of votes from text-crazy teen girls. However, given what I believe the show’s creators want relative to sales success, I think they will identify the most talented 20 to 24 female early on and push her.
I suspect the songwriting contest is dead. I’d be stunned if they brought it back. Not only was it a bureaucratic pain in the neck for show producers and workers, the song that won — “This Is My Now” — wasn’t a commercial hit. The hope all along was that by giving the masses a chance to write the winner’s song that they could come up with something better, and they didn’t.
I think producers would be wise to invoke even more drama into the process. Contestants like Antonella Barba from Season 6, I think, will be more of the norm going forward. In fact, I think a shady past or some risque photos will only help a marginal contestant’s chances, and I think producers are done trying to discourage it.
All in all, these aren’t the boldest of predictions, nor are they drastic changes to our favorite show. And certainly, none of them are guaranteed to come true as Season 7 unfolds.
However, the formula for post-Idol success has been pretty easy to solve after six seasons. And after a modest slip in show ratings and post-Idol record sales last season, I think the show’s creators and producers will be much more calculated this year in helping to shape our Season 7 winner.
